Just eleven days into his second presidency, Donald Trump has returned to a “completely inverted” Middle East, where his signature America First policy faces new regional complexities, from Gaza’s humanitarian crisis to shifting alliances in Syria.
Trump’s early moves signal a three-fold strategy: ending current conflicts in Palestine and Lebanon, confronting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and deepening US-Gulf economic integration, according to analysts familiar with the administration’s approach.
“For America First to be effective, the globe has to be stable. Wars and flashpoints come in the way of trade and commerce—the last thing Trump wants,” said Abishur Prakash, founder of The Geopolitical Business Inc.
“For the Middle East, this means a new kind of US involvement, to stamp out the fires and restore regional and global stability.”
His first actions have already jolted allies. A proposal to relocate Gaza’s Palestinians drew swift rejections from Egypt and Jordan, while his appointment of real estate mogul Steve Witkoff as Middle East envoy signals a return to business-oriented diplomacy.
“They will do it,” Trump told reporters on Thursday when asked about Egypt and Jordan’s rejection of his Gaza plan. “We do a lot for them, and they’re going to do it.”
Diplomatic reshuffling and new priorities
The administration’s rapid diplomatic engagement has centred on key appointments and high-profile meetings. Witkoff, credited with helping secure the recent Gaza ceasefire, made a rare visit to the territory this week before meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem.
“Solving the hostage crisis in Gaza is simpler than solving the broader geopolitics plaguing the region, in particular Iran,” Prakash said. “The entire focus of Witkoff will be to test the waters, and see how close or far Iran is to becoming a nuclear power. And, depending on what is assessed, Trump may become a ‘war-time’ president.”
The appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State adds another layer to the administration’s Middle East strategy.
“I think Trump’s return will produce a US Middle East policy of exerting ‘maximum pressure’ on all,” said Mahdi Ghuloom, regional security analyst at Le Beck International. “On adversaries such as Iran that means cracking down on oil exports, and extracting the best nuclear deal – if one is on the table at all.”
New regional dynamics and economic pressures
The Middle East that Trump has inherited in 2025 presents novel challenges, particularly regarding Syria and Turkey’s growing influence.
“There is also ‘new geopolitics’ underway in the region, like the new Syrian government, which took power partly through support from Turkey,” Prakash said. “This returns Turkey to being a shot caller in the Middle East, after years of grappling with domestic issues.”
These shifts could create new flashpoints.
“The conditions are now forming for Israel and Turkey, already adversaries, to collide in Syria, drawing in the US,” Prakash added.
“What is likely to happen is Trump closes the door on certain geopolitics (i.e. Hamas War), but has to deal with the door opening on other kinds of geopolitics.”
On the economic front, Trump’s approach appears focused on leveraging US influence to reshape regional dynamics. “Many of his partners in the Gulf will be concerned about promises to lower oil prices and distance them from China, as these particularly harm their economic interests,” Ghuloom said.
“Trump’s potential return could signal a resurgence of his administration’s focus on reshaping the Middle East through initiatives like the Abraham Accords,” said Imad Salamey, senior Middle East policy advisor at Lebanese American University.
“A second term would likely prioritise expanding normalisation agreements between Israel and Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia.”
Mounting challenges and Iran concerns
The administration faces significant hurdles in implementing its vision. Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called Trump’s proposed Gaza displacement “an injustice,” while Jordan’s King Abdullah II emphasised his country’s “firm position on the need to keep Palestinians on their land.”
For Syria, Trump’s approach may mark a significant shift.
“For the first time in almost two decades, the US may no longer give the cold shoulder to Damascus,” Prakash said.
“For Trump, Syria is important for two reasons: first, it is about ensuring that ISIS does not return. Second, it is about navigating America through the regional geopolitics, like Israel-Turkey.”
The Iran question remains central to regional stability. “The idea of Iran denuclearising is a pipe dream,” Prakash added.
“Over the last four years, since Trump left office, Tehran has repositioned itself squarely alongside Moscow and Beijing. There is no going back, even as European powers attempt to negotiate a deal without the US.”
These tensions highlight broader regional challenges.
“The regional shifts provide Trump with new opportunities to consolidate US influence,” Salamey said.
“Unlike his first term, where maximum pressure on Iran and unilateral decisions like the Golan Heights recognition defined his strategy, a second term might adopt a more nuanced approach.”
Post-war planning and future prospects
The administration’s approach to post-conflict reconstruction could prove crucial. “There are many ‘day-after’ plans, including proposals from Netanyahu as to what post-war Palestine should look like,” Prakash said.
“While reconstruction will bring parties together, the other parts of some of these plans, like Gaza being overseen by foreign powers, will only generate more backlash.”
US relations with Syria could also see changes under Trump. “With Syria’s new leadership reaching out to Trump and recent sanctions exemptions signalling potential openings, US-Syria relations could see a pragmatic reset,” Salamey said.
“However, any normalisation would likely be incremental and contingent on broader regional alignments.”
As the region watches Trump’s early moves, the success of his transactional approach remains uncertain. What is clear, analysts say, is that his administration’s attempt to restore global stability for America First will continue to reshape regional dynamics, even as new challenges emerge.
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