As Donald Trump settles into his second US presidency, his selection of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Steve Witkoff as Middle East envoy signals a potentially significant shift in US engagement with the region – one that combines hawkish diplomacy with business-oriented dealmaking, regional experts and analysts said.
Rubio, a three-term Florida senator with extensive foreign policy experience, secured swift Senate confirmation on Monday following Trump’s inauguration. The 53-year-old Cuban-American, who previously served as vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and Foreign Relations Committee, brings a decade and a half of congressional foreign policy experience to the role.
In his first week as Secretary of State, Rubio has already begun engaging with key regional allies. In a phone call on Thursday with UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Rubio discussed strengthening the strategic partnership between the two nations and addressing regional security challenges. The two officials also discussed efforts to combat extremism and promote regional stability, laying groundwork for what analysts say could be a broader push to reinvigorate US partnerships in the Gulf.
This early diplomatic engagement comes as the administration rolls out its two-pronged strategy of high-level diplomatic outreach and deal-oriented negotiation. The appointment of real estate magnate and investor Witkoff as Middle East envoy reflects this dual approach, particularly given his recent success in Qatar negotiating the Gaza ceasefire agreement. Regional analysts say this combination of traditional diplomacy and business-style dealmaking could mark a distinctive shift in how the US engages with Middle Eastern partners.
“His business background and general alignment with Trump’s style is significant in terms of achieving Trump’s goals,” Mahdi Ghuloom, regional security analyst at Le Beck International, told Arabian Business.
“Trump has returned to a world that is completely inverted from when he was last US president,” said Abishur Prakash, geopolitical strategist and founder of The Geopolitical Business Inc. “For ‘America First’ to be effective, the globe has to be stable. Wars and flashpoints come in the way of trade and commerce—the last thing Trump wants.”
According to Prakash, Trump’s focus in the Middle East is threefold. “End the current wars in Palestine and Lebanon, either through diplomatic means or giving Israel the greenlight to take further action; tackle the growing threat of Iran, in particular Tehran’s advances with nuclear weapons; and lastly, integration of the US and Gulf economies through investment and trade.”
Rubio’s vision
During his Senate confirmation hearing, Rubio outlined a stark view of global challenges and America’s role in addressing them. “The post-war global order is not just obsolete, it is now a weapon being used against us,” he told senators, laying out what he called an “unmistakable mandate” from voters for a new approach to foreign policy.
He outlined three fundamental questions that would guide all State Department activities under his leadership: “Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?”
“These are very nuanced questions with double meanings,” Prakash added. “Making America safer is not just about protecting US troops, but also ensuring a new wave of terrorism does not begin in the US homeland. Making America stronger is about combating US adversaries and protecting the US footprint, like against Iran, China, and Russia, in the Middle East.”
Witkoff’s hands-on approach
Witkoff has announced plans for immediate engagement in the region, saying he will visit Gaza as part of what he termed an “inspection team” monitoring the ceasefire agreement. His planned tour includes visits to two Israeli-held zones in Gaza: the Netzarim Corridor, which separates north and south Gaza, and the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border.
“Witkoff may have more of a role than Rubio on Middle Eastern affairs for the US,” said Ghuloom. “His business background and general alignment with Trump’s style is significant in terms of achieving Trump’s goals of milking the Gulf for money and mediation: making deals, putting America first.”
However, Prakash cautioned that “solving the hostage crisis in Gaza is simpler than solving the broader geopolitics plaguing the region, in particular Iran. The entire focus of Witkoff will be to test the waters, and see how close or far Iran is to becoming a nuclear power.”
Immediate challenges
The implementation of the Gaza ceasefire remains the most pressing issue facing the new team. The agreement’s first phase includes a pause in fighting, partial withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza including from the Netzarim Corridor, and increased aid delivery to the enclave.
Trump himself has expressed skepticism about the deal’s durability. “That’s not our war. It’s their war. But I’m not confident,” he told reporters at the White House, noting Gaza’s extensive destruction.
“Part of how Trump’s position will revolve around stability and deals. If Israel can conclude its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, it will bring a certain calm to the region, and enable Trump to focus on what I call ‘reintegration,'” Prakash explained.
“Unlike his first term, where maximum pressure on Iran and unilateral decisions like the Golan Heights recognition defined his strategy, a second term might adopt a more nuanced approach, leveraging the reduced threat of Iranian proxies to push for broader regional alignments,” Salamey said.
Medium-term goals
Saudi Arabia’s insistence on Palestinian statehood as a prerequisite for normalisation with Israel presents a significant diplomatic hurdle. “Trump’s transactional diplomacy would likely emphasise economic incentives to bring Saudi Arabia into normalisation with Israel,” Salamey explained.
However, Prakash suggests a potential shift in approach. “What is also likely is that Trump-Rubio attempt to build on Biden’s ‘historic deal’ with Saudi Arabia, exchanging mutual defence with a civil nuclear energy buildout,” he said.
“A key shift between Biden and Trump is that for Biden, Israel came first. But, for Trump, Israel and Saudi Arabia have equal weight, especially as the latter proposes $600 billion in foreign investment.”
The administration must also navigate evolving dynamics with Syria, where recent leadership changes and sanctions exemptions have created potential openings for diplomatic engagement.
“For Trump, Syria is important for two reasons: first, it is about ensuring that ISIS does not return. Second, it is about navigating America through the regional geopolitics, like Israel-Turkey,” Prakash noted.
Broader regional initiatives
The administration is pursuing the Indian-Middle-East-European Economic Corridor (IMEC) as a framework for regional economic integration. “This effort may be incentivised by the proposed IMEC, which could align with regional economic interests,” Salamey noted.
“However, Trump’s transactional approach would face challenges, including opposition from Turkish-Qatari-Palestinian coalitions and Iranian-Russian alliances, requiring delicate balancing acts.”
Prakash highlighted emerging regional complexities, with a “new” geopolitical landscape in the region that now includes a new government in Syria which took power through support from Turkey.
“This returns Turkey to being a shot caller in the Middle East, after years of grappling with domestic issues,” he added.
Gulf states are watching the new appointments with measured optimism, though concerns exist about potential pressure to distance themselves from China and maintain lower oil prices, according to regional experts.
“Many of his partners in the Gulf will be concerned about promises to lower oil prices and distance them from China, as these particularly harm their economic interests,” Ghuloom said. “Trump may very well push Saudi Arabia to consider joining the Bahrain-US C-SIPA, an agreement which falls short of a treaty but comes closer than others in offer in the Gulf.”
As the new team takes shape, several immediate developments will signal their approach’s effectiveness. Witkoff’s planned Gaza inspection visit and recent Indonesian diplomatic outreach by Rubio suggest an active engagement strategy combining traditional diplomacy with direct negotiation.
“What is likely to happen is Trump closes the door on certain geopolitics, like the Hamas War, but has to deal with the door opening on other kinds of geopolitics, like Israel-Turkey clashing over Syria,” Prakash said.
“The region’s complexities, including post-conflict reconstruction, Kurdish autonomy, and China’s growing influence, will ensure ongoing instability and competition,” Salamey added.
The success of the Rubio-Witkoff partnership may ultimately depend on their ability to balance Trump’s “America First” mandate with the complex realities of Middle East diplomacy.
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