It has now been over 40 years since the world witnessed the ‘third wave’ of democracy, when Portugal walked into the ‘hallowed halls’ of democracy following the largely peaceful Carnation Revolution.
Gun muzzles wore carnation flowers and people walked hand-in-hand with the army to celebrate their newfound liberty.
Larry Diamond, a democracy expert at Stanford University observes in his study on ‘Facing up to the Democratic Recession,’ that since then, 29 percent of all world democracies have broken down.
Today, we are entering a fourth wave, where democracy as an institution of governance, is challenged by forces within, notably, the youth.
The findings of the seventh annual ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey (AYS) reflect a clear stance on democracy by the region’s largest demographic of over 200 million.
A significant majority isn’t convinced about its effectiveness to fulfil their aspirations, with 39 percent agreeing with the statement “democracy will never work in the region,” and 25 percent being unsure.
Contrast these figures with the findings of the AYS in 2010, a year ahead of the events of the Arab Spring, when 92 percent of Arab youth’s single most important priority was living in a democratic society.
In a region starved of evidence-backed data, AYS has always served as an authoritative referral point for policymakers and businesses. The findings of AYS 2015 are significant, all the more so today as the Arab world finds itself enmeshed in a complex theatre of war and a challenging economic environment.
The waning confidence of the Arab youth in democracy — for which many fought and gave up their lives four years ago — is a sign of a deepening worry that a democratic transition is often marred by unprecedented violence and the emergence of new extremist forces such as Daesh (ISIL). AYS 2015 finds that the rise of Daesh is seen by Arab youth as the biggest obstacle facing the region, and fewer than half are confident their national government can deal with it.
The survey also points to the larger shifts in the political and economic order of the Middle East today. The more cautionary approach of the US to the region may be read alongside the rise in the country’s domestic oil production led by the shale gas boom. This, coincidentally, has been marked by a decline in oil prices, which the youth view with concern, and just over half surveyed (53 percent) believe that the current drop is temporary.
Yet there are bright spots. Arab youth are cautiously optimistic about the future. The optimism, however, is directly related to the ability of their governments to provide stability and order.
Eighty-one percent of Arab youth in the Gulf Cooperation Council states believe their countries are heading in the right direction, compared to 57 percent in North Africa and only 29 percent in Levant, the epicentre of the current Daesh-led conflict.
Social complexities have also brought young people in the Arab world much closer to their roots and identity. They are proud of their heritage and are concerned about the declining use of the Arabic language.
Looking inward for inspiration, youth across the region see in the UAE a country they would like to live in and a model for their nation to emulate. They also see in Saudi Arabia and the UAE trusted allies for their nations. Arab youth are also more enterprising in addressing their biggest concern — unemployment — with nearly two in five (39 percent) looking to start a business within the next five years.
Unlike the Carnation Revolution, the day that muzzles are covered with rose flowers now looks distant for the Arab world. But the views of the Arab youth seem to echo the futility of strife, evocatively described by Mahatma Gandhi.
“What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or in the holy name of liberty or democracy?”
We are, therefore, sharing the findings of the survey as part of our social responsibility, hopeful that they will add to the constructive dialogue by governments and the private sector in meeting the aspirations of the youth.
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