Trade between the Gulf and Asia surged to record highs last year, underlining the region’s accelerating pivot east as China overtook Western economies to become the Gulf’s largest trading partner for the first time, according to a new Asia House report.
Total Gulf-Asia trade rose 14.4 per cent to $516 billion in 2024, nearly double the $256 billion in Gulf-West trade, the London-based think tank said in The Middle East Pivot to Asia 2025. Gulf-China trade alone hit $257 billion, edging past combined flows with the United States, United Kingdom and Eurozone.
The UAE accounted for more than half of all Gulf-Asia trade, with flows to emerging Asia up 27 per cent to $268 billion, boosted by a wave of bilateral deals under Abu Dhabi’s Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) programme and large deployments by its sovereign wealth funds.
“The Gulf has become a key strategic middle power: pragmatic, outward-looking and increasingly central to the world economy in a period of immense global turbulence,” said Asia House Chief Executive Michael Lawrence OBE.
The report predicts Gulf-Asia trade could reach $802 billion by 2030, surpassing flows with advanced economies by 2028, as Asian demand for energy and non-oil goods continues to rise. Asia now absorbs 85 per cent of the region’s hydrocarbon exports, with growing cooperation in technology, renewables and logistics adding depth to the relationship.
While China remains the anchor of the eastward shift, the report highlights a 14.8 per cent rebound in Gulf-ASEAN trade to $128 billion, aided by a series of new trade agreements and the revival of multilateral talks on a GCC-ASEAN free trade pact.
The findings come amid heightened global economic fragmentation and protectionist headwinds, including tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Asian exports. Analysts say these dynamics are pushing Asian economies to deepen ties with the Gulf as a reliable trade and investment partner.
Asia House forecasts that the gap between Gulf-China and Gulf-West trade will widen to $75 billion by 2028, driven by structural shifts in energy and manufacturing supply chains.
Despite the eastward realignment, the report says Gulf states are likely to maintain strong links with Western partners in defence, security and finance as they consolidate their role as a global “bridge” between competing blocs.
Follow us on
