The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for UAE real GDP growth to 4.8 per cent for 2025, reflecting continued momentum across non-oil sectors and resilient investor confidence in the country’s diversified economy.
The new projection, published in the IMF’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), marks an upward revision from the Fund’s April forecast and underscores the UAE’s position as one of the strongest-performing economies in the Middle East.
The IMF expects the UAE’s economy to expand by 5 per cent in 2026, maintaining its earlier forecast for that year.
IMF UAE forecast
The report highlights that domestic demand, tourism, and infrastructure investment continue to support robust activity, alongside government initiatives advancing digital transformation and industrial growth.
Across the wider Middle East and Central Asia, the IMF projects economic growth to accelerate from 2.6 per cent in 2024 to 3.5 per cent in 2025 and 3.8 per cent in 2026 — a 0.5-percentage-point upgrade from April’s estimate for 2025.
Global growth, meanwhile, is expected to moderate from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026, with advanced economies expanding around 1.5 per cent and emerging and developing economies averaging just above 4 per cent.
In its accompanying analysis, the IMF urged governments to restore confidence through credible, transparent, and sustainable policies.
The Fund called for rebuilding fiscal buffers, safeguarding central-bank independence, and intensifying structural reforms.
It also encouraged policymakers to pair trade diplomacy with macroeconomic adjustment to support long-term stability.
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