Is it time to clean up Lebanon’s political system?

Tens of thousands of disaffected people, from students to small business owners, called for elections and the appointment of a president — a post the country has failed to fill for 15 months due to political bickering.

For many, the stinking piles filling empty plots of land, street curbs and even doorways was the final straw after years of suffering poor government services, including power cuts, water shortages and unemployment. The uncomfortable situation exists despite Lebanon’s wealth of resources — it has significant oil and gas reserves and plentiful water that makes it the envy of its drier neighbours.

The problem lies in the country’s ill political system, currently frozen by sectarianism.

“Political sectarianism — that is, the division of government posts on the basis of sectarian identity — has opened the door for clientelism and nepotism at an unprecedented level and has paralysed decision making in the government,” Carnegie Middle East Centre senior associate Maha Yahya says.

“The scale of corruption is such today, that many politicians treat the country as their private enterprise and have no shame in demanding their share of the pie. Consequently decisions related to electricity, water and other such services, are often subjected to criteria unrelated to their technical aspects and more to do with the interests of the different political parties.”

Lebanon’s political structure has been dissected along religious lines since independence, with the signing of the National Pact in 1943 sanctifying confessional proportional representation in government. The then-dominant Maronite Christian and Sunni communities gained control, traditionally receiving the presidency and prime ministership, respectively. The minority Shia Muslims were relegated to the less influential post of parliamentary speaker.

The sectarian arrangement has for decades dictated how services and public sector jobs are dished out, serving to further engrain the system into the fabric of Lebanese society. As power became ever more entwined in sectarian divides, the ability to change it declined; those with influence are unlikely to use it to lose it.

“…Religion is a critical factor because it acts as a key social identity marker for Lebanese citizens,” says the Berkley Centre for Religion, Peace and World Affairs’ 2013 report ‘Lebanon: The Persistence of Sectarian Conflict’. “People in Lebanon identify with socio-religious communities, and these are the critical cleavage points for political and economic competition—and conflict—in the country.”

Initially, it worked and the country was relatively stable until civil war broke out in 1975. Since its end in 1990, religious tensions have continued to simmer. Demographics have also changed, with more of the Christian population exiting the country and the number of Shias growing, challenging the political sectarian divisions.

In the past decade, the country has been mostly politically divided between the March 8 and March 14 alliances. Backed by Hezbollah, the Shia militant group and political party, March 8 is the dominant force in the country, carrying even more weight than the military, while the March 14 movement was formed to demand the end of Syria’s military presence in Lebanon in 2005, after the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. Its main player is Future Movement, Hezbollah’s Sunni rival.

The political deadlock has left the country barely governed. There have been no elections since 2009; parliament has twice extended its own mandate, delaying elections until at least 2017. MPs have repeatedly failed to meet quorum to select a new leader since Michel Suleiman resigned in March 2014, with dozens boycotting each voting round.

The standoff has frozen government decision making, from awarding tenders for infrastructure and paying teachers on time to failing to find an alternative to the Naameh landfill south of Beirut, which it closed on 17 July, leading to the “You Stink” protests.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) ranks the country the fourth-least efficient in the world, while ratings agency Moody’s last week warned of further deterioration of the economy and business environment.

“Lebanon’s political deadlock is credit negative because it thwarts key fiscal reforms, and the protests, if unresolved, will likely dent confidence in the country’s banking system, negatively affecting deposit inflows, and jeopardise tourism and economic growth,” Moody’s said in its credit outlook for the country on 7 September, in which it maintained its B2 negative rating.

“Delays in key fiscal reforms because of the political vacuum have strained government finances. A restructuring of state-owned utility Electricité du Liban, tax reforms and the passing of budgets have been continuously postponed as various factions fail to find a compromise.

“In the absence of new revenue measures, Lebanon’s fiscal deficit is widening to 8.3 percent of GDP in 2015 from 6.2 percent in 2014, leading to an increase in the government’s already very large debt burden, to close to 124 percent of GDP. The government deadlock [also] has delayed passage of fiscal laws such as raising the external debt ceiling. The parliament last authorised the issuance of $2.5bn in new Eurobonds in October 2014, and $2.2bn were issued in February 2015. Although Lebanon continues to issue Eurobonds to refinance maturing instruments, reliance on domestic borrowing used to fund new deficits is more costly and over time risks eroding the country’s balance-of-payment inflows and reserves.”

The ratings agency says political instability will see real GDP remain subdued at 2 percent in 2015, still lower than the five-year average of 7.7 percent before 2011.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also forecasts restrained growth of 2 percent this year, with little improvement in the foreseeable future.

“Political paralysis has set in, with virtually no progress on the structural front,” the IMF said in July.

“Growth has remained modest and insufficient to make a dent in rising poverty and unemployment. A welcome improvement in the primary fiscal position in 2014 was largely due to temporary factors, and will not be sustained absent adjustment efforts — implying that, without additional effort, Lebanon’s already-sizable public debt burden will only worsen.

“Financial conditions have nonetheless remained stable, as deposit inflows continue to fund the economy and sizeable buffers support the credibility of the exchange rate peg.”

It is hard to ignore the impact of 1 million Syrian refugees — accounting one in three people now living in Lebanon. Their presence has added strain to already-ailing services, with the dire situation even leading some to leave refugee camps for the dangerous route to Europe, although the Lebanese people have shown little interest in directing their grievances towards them.

The IMF warned in July the Syrian crisis and inflow of refugees continued to dominate Lebanon’s short-term outlook, “compounding long-standing policy weaknesses and vulnerabilities”.

“The refugee crisis is straining local communities, adding to poverty and unemployment, and placing further pressure on the economy’s already-weak public finances and infrastructure,” the IMF’s Lebanon executive director said in a country report.

Lebanon’s traditional growth drivers — tourism, real estate, and construction — have nosedived following a temporary resurgence in violence in late 2013 to early 2014. Tourist numbers had begun to recover, picking up by 7 percent in the first half of 2015 after a 7.5 percent decline in 2014, but the recent protests are likely to hamper a recovery. Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia — three of Lebanon’s largest source markets — have each issued travel warnings.

Yet few in Lebanon are calling for the political power sharing arrangement to be quashed. Protestors instead lament the system of sectarian patronage that has been cultivated around it, often meaning only those with ties to the right sectarian powerbrokers have access to top jobs, business deals and other necessities. They are calling for accountability and transparency from the government. And not least, action.

“We are not for toppling the regime, we are for reforms,” Nizam Abou Khzam, a leader of the lobby group Lebanon Eco Movement, told the New York Times during the recent protests in Beirut.

But the “You Stink” campaign, while successful at re-highlighting the political stagnation, may itself not be sufficiently coordinated to effect change. The multiple groups behind it, or who have piggy backed on it, are fragmented, ill-organised and without one direct purpose.

Their demand for the environment minister to resign was hardly effectual, with Mohammad Machnouk agreeing only to step down from the committee responsible for the rubbish crisis, while about 30 protesters who staged a sit-in in the ministry building were swiftly removed by riot police.

Kean University associate professor of political science Nazih Richani says although the anti-systemic movement cuts across sectarian boundaries it would require far more time to penetrate the “inhospitable social structure”.

“Knowing the colonial history of Lebanon since the 19th century and the secto-political nature of its political structure created in post-colonial Lebanon, where sects are the only legitimate unit of political representation and sects’ leaders are the distributors of the states’ resources, it is highly unlikely that the Stink Movement would flourish,” he says. “I hope I am mistaken.”

Richani says previous secular movements have failed to overturn the sectarian political structure, including during the 1975-90 civil war and the three-month crisis in 1958, also ignited by political and religious tensions.

“What you have in Lebanon is a dysfunctional state, which is not allowed to collapse by its elite, as well as by civil society. [It also survives] by default, given the painful and non-viable alternative: endless perpetual sectarian violence,” Richani says.

“The Stink Movement is asking for more state. That is, a state that delivers to the people basic services, such as collecting garbage, water, electricity, some minimal protection of the environment, and that the political elite moderate in its looting behaviour, having amassed billions of dollars in their pockets.”

But the Carnegie Middle East Centre’s Yahya says the protestors do “stand a good chance” — if they can organise themselves and plan effectively.

“Yes, current protests can lead to results particularly if the organisers keep their eye on the ball and on addressing the issues related to the daily grievance of people,” she says. “The disarray is bound to happen when so many groups get involved and political parties try to co-opt the process; but the You Stink campaigners stand a good chance.”

Some predict the protests will be drawn out but few expect them to become violent. Unlike rallies against governments under the banner of the Arab Spring four years ago, the Beirut disaffection is directed at a system rather than a dictator.

“Lebanon is different from the [Arab Spring] countries in that bringing down the regime does not target one person but an entire group of people,” Yahya says.

The armed political parties of Hezbollah, the strongest force in the country, and Amal, also have no appetite for domestic violence, analysts suggest.

“Lebanon is not heading to violence or a civil war,” Richani says. “The international-regional nexus does not allow it. This is in spite, and may be because of, the ongoing civil war in Syria and the overall volatile regional environment. That is to say Lebanon has ‘peace by default’ because of all the warring around it.”

But while they may be relatively secure, many in Lebanon do not have peace of mind. Parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri called for a national dialogue, which began on 9 September, in a bid to address the government’s inefficiency. But even he has surrendered to the system; while calling for reform during the You Stink protests, he waved the green flags of the Shia movement Amal.

“Every time, sectarianism proves to be stronger than me and the parliament,” he said.