Lebanon is experiencing a surge in internal displacement and a property crunch as residents flee the southern regions amid escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, reminiscent of the month-long 2006 conflict.
Panic set in among many residents following a recent strike near Beirut and the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander, reigniting fears of a wider conflict and prompting many to seek temporary accommodations in northern Lebanon and mountainous regions.
However, the sudden influx of people fleeing potential conflict zones near the border with Israel has collided with the peak summer tourist season, creating a perfect storm of high demand and limited supply in the rental market. As a result, the situation has led to skyrocketing rental prices, overcrowded safer areas, and a general sense of unease among the population.
Michel Azar, 58, a resident of the Al Hadath neighbourhood in Beirut, describes the situation as “very critical.” Speaking to Arabian Business, he said, “people from the South are moving from that crisis area to go to the North, East, and some other places in the mountains to find a safe place to stay.”
The mass exodus has created a severe shortage of available accommodations, with many fleeing residents struggling to find temporary housing. This is further exacerbated by the peak summer season for tourism.
“Rent is very expensive because you have to rent during the summer season, busy season. You’re talking about a season for $5,000 for 3 months, they won’t let you have 1, 2, or 3 weeks it’s a seasonal issue,” said Azar.
The current crisis is compounded by Lebanon’s ongoing economic and political instability. “In general, the situation in Lebanon is facing since so many years several problems, financial, economical, political, unemployment, basic needs and necessities like electricity, fuel, medical supplies, food security,” Azar added.
Echoes of 2006 war
For many Lebanese, the current situation evokes memories of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. The conflict, which took place between July 12 and August 14 that year is believed to have killed almost 1,300 Lebanese people and displaced approximately 1 million, reports suggest.
Raphael Daniel, 32, a Lebanese expat whose family also resides in Al Hadath, recalled, “In view of the escalating situation in Lebanon, people are moving from south to north same as we all did back in 2006 where life was put on hold for 1 month and 2 days until there was a cease-fire which results are inconclusive till date.”
Daniel expressed concern about the potential consequences of this internal migration.
“Some people see the migration as a threat and others welcome the migration depending on each area,” he told Arabian Business.
“As you know, there’s a lot of religious and political discrimination in the country between certain regions which makes it harder for the people migrating from one area to another even if it’s for a short period of time.”
Manal Souaid, 43, a resident of Byblos, drew parallels between the current situation and previous periods of tension.
“The same thing happened in October last year when people panicked,” said Souaid, referring to when tensions intensified in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict on October 8 last year when the Lebanese armed group attacked Israeli positions in solidarity with Palestinians following a Hamas attack the day before which led to the Gaza War.
At the time, Israel retaliated, leading to ongoing exchanges along the Israel-Lebanon border and in Syria, marking the then-largest escalation since 2006, with over 330 Lebanese casualties reported.
“In 2006, we saw something similar. Whenever an escalation happens, we normally see people panicking to find a place to stay in safer areas,” Souaid added.
“Today felt like 2006, all my friends are telling me to book a ticket and leave or sort out my son’s visa to leave and go to Dubai. Lots of people are panicking and booking tickets to leave.”
Economy strained as conflict fears spark exodus, global powers urge evacuations
The sudden influx of people seeking safer areas has led to a significant increase in rental prices. Souaid confirmed this trend: “Rent prices have exploded and this is usually what happens, we’ve seen abnormal increases in rent. Demand for these properties is so high.”
The property crunch is not only affecting those fleeing conflict zones but also impacting the broader Lebanese economy. The country has been grappling with a severe financial downturn for years, blamed largely on government mismanagement. The current situation has only exacerbated these economic woes.
The rush for safer accommodations comes as several countries, including France, Australia, and the United States, have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.
At Beirut airport, chaotic scenes have unfolded as people rush to evacuate. “[On Sunday], in Beirut airport, we saw pictures and videos of people rushing to evacuate, many Western countries also asked their nationals to evacuate immediately,” Azar said.
This exodus of foreigners has put additional pressure on the already strained Lebanese economy and transportation infrastructure.
The current situation has left many Lebanese feeling uncertain about the future. Souaid expressed her confusion, saying, “No one knows what’s happening, and it’s so hard to analyse this time.”
“I can’t tell what’s going to happen and for the first time, no one can even analyse or guess if it will escalate further.”
As tensions continue to rise, the possibility of a larger conflict looms. Daniel reflected on the broader implications. “All I see is a cycle to destabilise the country further whether the escalation is from Hezbollah or Israel. Neither the people nor the Government have a say in the country which has sadly been the situation for years,” he said.
Daniel believes the internal migration in Lebanon is a threat as many might be high-value targets from Hezbollah. “If Israel decides that these people need to be taken out, then we will have civilian casualties that have nothing to do with all this,” he explained.
“The migrations are a threat because some of the people migrating might be high-value targets from Hezbollah. if Israel decides that these people are to be taken out then we have civilian casualties that have nothing to do with all this.
As Lebanon braces for potential further escalation, the internal displacement and property crunch serve as stark reminders of the human cost of conflict. With memories of 2006 still fresh, many Lebanese are left hoping for a peaceful resolution while preparing for the worst.
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