Economic growth for most Middle Eastern and North African
oil exporters is likely to accelerate this year, although some may see a sharp
slowdown due to social unrest, the International Monetary Fund said on
Wednesday.
Regional real gross domestic product (GDP) should expand by
4.9 percent this year, less than the 5.0 percent projected by the IMF in
October but well above 3.5 percent in 2010, the multilateral lender said in its
regional economic report.
“Growth is likely to be uneven in 2011, but the GCC
(Gulf Cooperation Council) as a group is racing ahead. Bahrain, Iran, Libya,
Sudan, and Yemen are likely to be negatively affected but the rest are expected
to grow well above trend,” the IMF said.
The forecast for the region, home to six of the world’s top
10 oil exporters, is not fully comparable with previous figures as the IMF
chose to exclude Libya, torn by fighting between rebels and forces loyal to
Muammar Gaddafi.
The fund said robust crude prices – near their highest since
September 2008 at around $112 per barrel – and raised government spending aimed
at easing social tensions were among key factors supporting economic expansion
in the region.
Growth in impoverished Yemen, shaken by three months of
protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, was forecast to plunge to 3.4
percent this year from 8.0 percent in 2010.
Bahrain’s economic output should expand by 3.1 percent, the
IMF said, down from 4.5 percent last year. The kingdom imposed martial law last
month and invited troops from Gulf neighbours to quell its worst unrest since
the 1990s.
Some indicator forecasts had already been updated in the
IMF’s World Economic Outlook, released earlier this month.
The Fund said the region’s near-term economic outlook was
subject to unusually large uncertainties stemming from the unrest, with risks
on the downside.
“Protracted unrest could adversely affect investor
sentiment, weigh on private sector activity (Bahrain, Libya, Oman, Yemen), and
affect the cost and availability of financing for the region as a whole,”
it said.
Oil income growth will generate substantial fiscal surpluses
in crude exporting countries in 2011 despite increased social spending, but
with greater revenue uncertainty, the IMF said.
The current account surplus of oil exporters excluding Libya
is projected at about $378 billion in 2011, of which the Gulf states will
account for about $304bn.
The IMF said inflation was expected to increase in almost
all the countries of the region this year, to an average of 11 percent as
concerns about food security rise.
“Some governments, particularly in the GCC (Kuwait,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE), will need to carefully monitor the impact of
expansionary fiscal spending on aggregate demand to prevent a resurgence of
inflationary pressures,” it said.
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