The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has slashed its projections on global trade growth to 0.8 percent from its earlier forecast of 1.7 percent in 2023.
The revised projections come amid a continued slump in global merchandise trade that began in the fourth quarter of 2022.
According to the latest WTO trade forecast released on Thursday, the volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to grow by 0.8 percent this year, less than half the 1.7 percent increase forecasted in April.
The 3.3 percent growth projected for 2024, however, remains nearly unchanged from the previous estimate.
Global trade outlook for 2023-2024
The WTO also expects real world GDP to grow by 2.6 percent at market exchange rates in 2023 and by 2.5 percent in 2024, as set out in its “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics — Update: October 2023”.
“Trade growth should pick up next year accompanied by slow but stable GDP growth. Sectors that are more sensitive to business cycles should stabilise and rebound as inflation moderates and interest rates start to come down,” the global trade body said in its latest forecast report.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the projected slowdown in trade for 2023 is a cause for concern, because of the adverse implications for the living standards of people around the world.
“Global economic fragmentation would only make these challenges worse, which is why WTO members must seize the opportunity to strengthen the global trading framework by avoiding protectionism and fostering a more resilient and inclusive global economy,” Okonjo-Iweala said.
The global economy, and in particular poor countries, will struggle to recover without a stable, open, predictable, rules-based and fair multilateral trading system, the WTO head added.
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