The last fourteen months have taught us that predicting even the near future is not for the faint-hearted. But this need not make for a gloomy business outlook. As it stands, well into the second quarter of 2021, there are strong grounds for hope and optimism, in our region and elsewhere. There is much to celebrate and look forward to, and a lot that is worth our revitalised energy and endeavour.
The pandemic, which rocked the world in 2020 is ongoing, its impacts still reverberating. Some countries and regions are faring better than others, and our thoughts and support are rightly with those still in the thick of ongoing health and economic crises. But we are not where we were a year ago.
While globally we have suffered great losses, in important ways we are much richer. Our knowledge, understanding, and capacity have grown exponentially.
Understanding the challenges
We know much more now about the nature of the beast – from the microscopic beast that is the coronavirus to the complex beast that is effectively addressing a public health emergency and avoiding economic catastrophe in a deeply interconnected world. We now have many months’ worth of data and fundamental insights which clarify the shape and pattern of what we are dealing with.
We are no longer groping in the dark. Crucially, the aggressive, unprecedented timeline for vaccine development and rollout is a testament to what our collective human intelligence, willpower, and organisational prowess can achieve. All of this is game-changing.
And although challenges are still abound – not least, ensuring global equity in terms of access to vaccines and supporting those countries battling new variants and waves of the pandemic – in the UAE specifically and the GCC more generally, we have started 2021 on a much better footing. We have caught our breath and found our balance. We have shown ourselves to be adaptable and resilient, and we have come out stronger.
The UAE was independently named the second most resilient country in the world in the recent Pandemic Resilience Index 2021
Optimism and resilience
In marked contrast to much of 2020, the prevailing mood now is one of optimism and resilience (even if accompanied by a sensible degree of caution). Increasingly we recognise not just the loss and devastation of the last year, but the vast sense of opportunity and possibility that has emerged.
In business, we are exploring avenues, following leads, and in many cases, growing markets about which we were only dimly conscious a year ago. At the personal and professional levels, as well as culturally, economically, and politically, we are being challenged to become more resilient – to grow our abilities to withstand adversity and bounce back from difficulty, stronger and with greater wisdom and capability than ever before.
In fact, the UAE was independently named the second most resilient country in the world in the recent Pandemic Resilience Index 2021. In further good news, the country is seeing accelerated economic recovery on the back of a highly successful vaccine programme and the gradual lifting of Covid restrictions. Similar patterns are emerging in the US, UK, and China. Elsewhere in the Gulf, the economic outlook is also positive.
As the pandemic is brought under control and confidence grows in our ability to withstand the storm, the hospitality, energy and property sectors are showing signs of prosperity again. In due course, as international travel opens again, tourism and aviation will also see a strong rebound, benefiting from a tidal wave of pent-up consumer demand.
Events revival
Already, a very good sign is the impressive success of the Arabian Travel Market (ATM) earlier last month (followed by ATM Virtual making the most of the hybrid live and virtual model that many sectors have been perfecting over the last year).
The world-renowned trade fair, the first major live event for the global travel and tourism industry in 18 months, attracted major international brands, industry players and experts from around the world.
The triumph of the ATM has demonstrated the very healthy appetite that exists for reuniting and reconnecting through live events, in real, embodied – and of course, safe and responsible – ways. That this appetite exists, and will persist, should come as no surprise. After all, one way in which we are collectively emerging stronger and wiser is in the importance we are learning to place on connections and relationships, near and far.
On experiencing life in all its richness, and as part of that, seizing opportunities for enjoyment, celebration and discovery – even amid ongoing change and adaptation.
At the ATM, as at the recent Time Out Dubai Restaurant Awards, we saw that not only is it possible for people to come together safely, in line with ongoing Covid restrictions and safeguards, but that even within those sectors that have borne the brunt of the economic costs of the pandemic, the mood is upbeat and proactive.
The very act of reuniting in these ways is a cause for celebration. The recent Arabian Business Money Forum and Future of Work Forum, though on a smaller scale, are further evidence of this important resurgence in live gatherings. In market terms, events and shows of this kind represent a bonanza of brand activations.
In human terms, the buzz and the excitement, the connections and networking opportunities, are more valuable and priceless than ever. Humans are social creatures: after more than a year behind screens, it is gratifying and enriching to see each other. Knowing that we can do so while maintaining sensible precautions is a welcome boost to our collective trust and confidence.
The Expo effect
The signs are also looking good for the Dubai Expo 2020 (now 2021/2022). Although the Dubai Expo has been roughly a decade in the making, its theme, ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’, could not be more fitting to the world today. As an international event, the Expo is a creative catalyst, celebrating human brilliance and connecting people from across the globe.
Over a full six months, the Dubai Expo will generate a wealth of ideas, connections, and opportunities for business and enterprise – precisely when all this is most needed. Key sectors for growth and innovation supported by the Expo include those of sustainability and low carbon futures.
These represent social, technological and economic trends that the Gulf is well poised to contribute to, and which will help ensure the region’s resilience and its future as a major player in diversified global energy markets.
Let us make no mistake: all that we have experienced over the last year or so is the work of living. We have had to do it before, and doubtless, we will have to do it again. The process of being thrown off balance, and then finding our footing, has led to many innovations over human history.
Many social, cultural and market trends over the past 10 years and more have had their roots in crisis and uncertainty. Most step changes in resilience arise from this uncomfortable place too.
Rediscovering the future
True, there is much work to be done, but we are better equipped than ever to do it – and though the learning process continues (always), there is little doubt that sticking with it will pay dividends. It is already doing so.
Globally, we are rediscovering the people, places and moments, big and small, that make life worth living, and better futures worth fighting for. Many businesses and sectors within the region are already reaping the benefits of this hard-won learning. This bodes well for our shared future: with the promise of even brighter times ahead.
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