By Alex Delmar-Morgan
US tycoon Donald Trump's son confirmed as keynote speaker at Cityscape Dubai in Oct.
Donald Trump Junior, son of the famous US real estate tycoon, is to speak at Cityscape Dubai this year, it was announced on Tuesday.
In his speech at the annual property exhibition, Trump will identify current opportunities in the regional and global real estate markets, and will forecast a timeline for their recovery, a statement said.
Global property prices will bottom out in 2010 and the world will come out of recession when the US economy improves, Trump predicted.
“Due to the persistent buy-sell gap, the unwillingness of banks to foreclose and the complexity of workouts - I would say that it will be sometime in 2010 before we get the sense that we have bottomed out,” he said in the statement.
He added that US commercial real estate prices would return to their 2007 peaks by 2017, with hospitality values not recovering until 2015.
In December, the Trump Tower Dubai, the $600m joint venture between Nakheel and the Trump Organization was put on hold by the state-controlled developer in light of the global crisis.
Trump is executive vice president of the New-York based Trump Organization, a global real estate developer of everything from hotels and golf courses.
People, these forecasts of the bottom mean nothing.
The trouble with any such forecast is that dubai is a special case. In the same sense that the prices and the volume of sales both went out of control in a scenario not seen on such a scale anywhere else in the world, a recovery in Dubai will also be a non-typical set of circumstances. No sign of it yet, but if Dubai uses the downturn to sort out its legal situation re property rights and can create a situation whereby people who buy a property have a right to live in it, i.e. an automatic right of residency with no red tape, then there is no reason why the recovery should be more than two or three years away. If it doesn't sort these problems out then the tumbleweeds will be blowing through New Dubai in that same three years from now. Oh! By the way, the people who bought into projects that are not going to be built or are experiencing unreasonable delay will need to be given all of their money back if Dubai wants to regain its credibility and ever be able to sell again.
Is it already enough to be the son of an so called expert to become a keynote speaker of Cityscape Dubai? Oh this is really first class and worth the event... Even less audience than last year.
A recovery to real estate and construction sectors, which are two key drivers of UAE economy is possible quite earlier than expected if the govt. is serious to take some radical steps which are important for the population increase here. 1. The Residency visa law for those who purchase the property in UAE must be provided for at least 3 years with relaxed renewable terms. Otherwise , who will invest here or can live here for long term?? 2. The Govt. must consider the scrapping of sponsership for jobs. People should be free to move in the market. They must better the International Laws on Human Rights. The recent steps taken by Bahrain followed by Kuwait regarding scrapping of the sponsership scrapping has been well acclaimed and UAE must follow the same if they want to restart the economic growth and sustain it. Otherwise they will lag behind. Qatar is also monitoring this closely.
So Mr. Trump Jr, If it is going to BOOM in 2010, why didn't you complete your hotel on the Palm!? Especially after so many people bought flats on the Golden Mile on the Palm because they thought they will be your neighbor? Again, more experts giving us words... and not risking their own money in the process...
eehhhm, I didnt see any mention of a boom. He just predicted a bottoming out in 2010 and recovery by 2017, which is 8 years away, so I think they were wise to delay the project...maybe they will restart in 2012 or 2013. Patience and good-timing are the name of the game, not hot heads and hearts. Some people may think the Trumps are brash, but they are shrewd, patient, pay attention to detail and know a thing or two about risk.
The Trumps don't hold any stake in the Trump Tower Dubai, they're just receiving money to put their name on it. I don't think they have any involvement with project management, so really it's hard to see why anyone would care what Donald 2nd thinks. Perhaps they don't get their money until the building is completed (ie never).
If his name was not "Trump", would he even have been invited to speak?
Bede and KM - you are totally right. Minor changes in the ownership rights, residency visa and labor laws will go a long way in improving the RE market in Dubai and also Abu Dhabi. I guess you might not be aware why they don't want to facilitate the residency Visas? It will open the doors for people to ask for citizenship 10 or 15 yrs down the line as per the UN international laws. This is a big issue that any UAE national will be against, they will loose their identity especially that they are already outnumbered, so imagine how the population dynamics can change 20 or 30 yrs from now if they open the door to everyone. Needless to mention, new citizens or long time residents could easily demand political and voting rights. However, you also need to keep in mind that these stringent visa and sponsorship rules can change in 24 hrs. If they come up with favorable terms, then the real estate market will bounce back big time. Forget about Westerners, Dubai will never be an attractive place for them or perhaps it might be seen as a nice place to live for only a few â€“ maybe 5 or 10%. Focusing on westerners was Dubaiâ€™s biggest mistake!!! Iâ€™m talking about Arabs, Iranians, GCC nationals as well as Indians and Pakistanis. The vast majority will be happy and more comfortable living here in Dubai Vs other global cities like Hong Kong, London or New York. Donâ€™t get me wrong, Iâ€™m not saying that Dubai is better than these cities and Iâ€™m not even comparing it! Iâ€™m saying that most Middle Easterns and quite a few Southeast Asians will be more comfortable living here than any of these global cities There is a lot of wealth in this region and Dubai can easily leverage that. Dubai is still the regional hub for the Middle East and is still by far the best place to live in this massive region. It offers a very attractive proposition to all these segments that no other place can offer â€“ lifestyle, business, leisure and, most importantly, proximity to their hometown and a culture that it not distant from their own. There are some negatives that no one can debate, but we are talking about developing countries here. So they probably have more severe problems in their hometowns Dubai can recover rapidly because itâ€™s a very small market compared to where most of us come from. Itâ€™s not a country or even a city!!! It's the size of an average district or neighborhood in any major Western or Asian or Arab country. So a few hundred property transactions which will be negligible in any other country will make a make a big noise in Dubai and every real estate agent will be talking about it. So imagine what will happen if 4 or 5 thousand transactions took place and this can happen easily if they improve the property ownership rules. I donâ€™t know how and when they will take action, but I know that for sure that they will!! They will give up very easily and will not accept to lose the enviable position they had before the crisis. We are talking about an oversupply of 50, 60 or even 80 thousand units. Thatâ€™s not a big deal if you take a long term perspective!!
Karim, it seems you don't know the difference between BOOM and BOTTOM. Trump Jr was talking about reaching the bottom in 2010 which is the final stage of the downturn before turning back up. A boom is somewhere close to the peak of the economic cycle. So assuming we bottom out in 2010, the economy might boom again in 2012 or 2013 or it might never boom again Everyone likes to throw a comment when it comes to Dubai real estate even if it has nothing to do with the topic