The Middle East’s aviation market will be one of the slowest to recover fully from the impact of the global coronavirus pandemic, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
In a new research note, the authority said that with limited short-haul markets, the Middle East’s focus on long-haul connectivity through its hubs is “expected to result in slower recovery”.
Passenger numbers to, from and within the Middle East are expected to reach 81 percent of 2019 levels in 2022, 98 percent in 2024 and 105 percent in 2025 after levels slumped to 42 percent last year. These figures lag the global average.
On Monday, Oman became the latest GCC country to lift the pre-entry PCR requirement for travellers, joining the UAE and Bahrain in the easing of Covid-19 related restrictions.
IATA said it expects overall traveller numbers to reach 4 billion in 2024, exceeding pre-Covid-19 levels – 103 percent of the 2019 total.
It added that expectations for the shape of the near-term recovery have shifted slightly, reflecting the evolution of government-imposed travel restrictions in some markets.
The overall picture presented in the latest update to IATA’s long-term forecast, however, is unchanged from what was expected in November, prior to the Omicron variant.
“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from Covid-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant. People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
In 2021, overall traveller numbers were 47 percent of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83 percent in 2022, 94 percent in 2023, 103 percent in 2024 and 111 percent in 2025.
In 2021, international traveller numbers, which dominate the aviation industry in the Middle East, were 27 percent of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 69 percent in 2022, 82 percent in 2023, 92 percent in 2024 and 101 percent in 2025.
IATA said this is a slightly more optimistic near-term international recovery scenario compared to November 2021, based on the progressive relaxation or elimination of travel restrictions in many markets.
This has seen improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, strengthening the baseline for recovery. Asia-Pacific is expected to continue to lag the recovery with the region’s largest market, China, not showing any signs of relaxing its severe border measures in the near future.
Walsh added: “The biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers are the restrictions that governments place on travel. Fortunately, more governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus.
“And the economic and social hardship caused for very limited benefit is simply no longer acceptable in a growing number of markets. As a result, the progressive removal of restrictions is giving a much-needed boost to the prospects for travel.”
IATA reiterated its call for the removal of all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine; pre-departure antigen testing to enable quarantine-free travel for non-vaccinated travellers; removing all travel bans and accelerating the easing of travel restrictions in recognition that travellers pose no greater risk for Covid-19 spread than already exists in the general population.
The latest forecast does not calculate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
“In general, air transport is resilient against shocks and this conflict is unlikely to impact the long-term growth of air transport. It is too early to estimate what the near-term consequences will be for aviation, but it is clear that there are downside risks, in particular in markets with exposure to the conflict,” said IATA.
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