As world leaders gear up to converge in Dubai this week for COP28, expectations are high that this year’s climate conference will move beyond dialogue to deliver concrete plans and commitments to tackle the climate crisis.
The inclusion of oil and gas companies for the first time signifies the importance of bringing all stakeholders to the table. However, after a “disappointing” outcome at COP27 last year, experts are questioning whether COP28 can reinvigorate global climate progress through meaningful action. One such expert is Emrah Durusut, Senior Partner at global ESG consulting firm Xynteo who believes COP27 was “hampered by all number of challenges and the watered-down results were a disappointment, not just to the majority of delegates, but for people and communities around the world.”
Extending COP26 to include business in the conference was initially seen as a “gamechanger” but COP27 showed that “this optimism was overstated,” he added.
“If COP28 can’t get us back on track, then the whole process has the capacity to degenerate into just a glorified talking stop,” said Durusut.
The UN climate conference, being held in the Middle East for the second consecutive year, will welcome over 70,000 visitors from all corners of the globe, including heads of state and industry leaders. COP28 will begin on Thursday and run until December 12. With only a few days to go, Arabian Business spoke to experts who will be in attendance to gauge their expectations for the event, key areas for immediate action, and what a successful COP will look like – in their view.
Key areas for action at COP28
“As the world converges at COP28 to confront the urgent challenges of climate change, we are reminded of the collective responsibility we share to safeguard our planet for future generations,” CEO of enviro-tech company Dendra Systems, Dr. Susan Graham, told Arabian Business.
“COP28’s emphasis on four cross-cutting themes – Technology and Innovation; Inclusion; Frontline Communities; and Finance – underscores the comprehensive approach required to tackle the root causes of climate change and manage its far-reaching impacts.”
COP28 is a platform to advance an integrated energy vision, to break down barriers so that net zero technology can be scaled rapidly, and to help each country participating to recognise the diverse paths they must take in their net zero transition, according to Luca Corradi, CTO of non-profit organisation Net Zero Technology Centre.
He emphasised the need to “accelerate the pace of co-development towards a net zero carbon economy.”
“Many of the energy transition technologies needed to limit the global temperature rise already exist. But it is well documented that more effort is required to rapidly scale up, reduce costs and increase efficiencies as well as accelerate the pace of co-development towards a net zero carbon economy,” he said, adding that even established technologies “are not scaling up and diffusing fast enough to shift towards a net zero-emissions trajectory.”
Therefore, rapid scaling of solutions through investments and partnerships will be paramount to addressing the challenge.
The importance of collaboration is a sentiment shared by most experts attending the conference.
Rasha Al Madfai, Acting Director of the Environmental Awareness Devlopment Department, Environmental Information, Science, and Outreach Management at Abu Dhabi’s Environment Agency (EAD), said that COP28 will foster collaboration, empower youth and accelerate the transition towards a sustainable future.
Initiatives like EAD’s sustainability education hubs and youth programmes can amplify voices driving change, which Al Madfai revealed the Agency will be pushing throughout the 13-day climate conference.
Youth will play an integral part in the world’s climate struggle as they are the guardians of our planet’s future who will monitor progress being made and help ensure goals continue to be approached over the long-run. Early education and a deep understanding of the challenges facing the planet’s future will ensure that they will eventually actualise the UN’s strategic vision for strategic development and guide future environmental stewardship.
Time is running out to avoid catastrophic climate impacts, the experts warned. As Durusut said, “short-term priorities for economies and businesses around the world will only create larger problems in (the much nearer) future.” If leaders continue prioritising short-term gains over urgent emission cuts, even more severe consequences will follow.
COP28 also represents a commercial opportunity worth trillions. “Achieving global net-zero requires $3-5 trillion investment per annum…for several decades so this is also one of the greatest commercial opportunities of our lifetime,” he added. Progressive nations and companies taking bold action now will find themselves positioned for future growth.
Where COP27 fell short
COP27 fell short of meeting some of its key commitments, according to several reports.
“It lacked the clarity of direction and collaborative commitment from all parties which we now need to see,” said Durusut.
Last year’s conference aimed to raise green finance to support countries most vulnerable to climate change, however pledged funds from rich nations have remained unevenly allocated and below the $100 billion by 2020 goal, according to the Brussels International Centre (BIC), a non-profit climate-focused thinktank. Only $83 billion was provided with just 25 percent was delivered in 2020 with just 25 percent for adaptation.
It is within this context that COP27 failed, leaving key commitments from Glasgow’s COP26 unfulfilled. A key outcome was setting up frameworks to reform financing systems and ease developing nation access to green funds, recognising only 20 percent of renewable investments currently reach low- and middle-income states. Some proposals to leverage over $500 billion privately were mentioned.
However, the conference did announce the UN Secretary-General’s $3.1 billion plan to expand early warning systems in developing regions by 2027, a crucial step as 60 percent of Africa currently lacks such adaptation measures.
COP27’s biggest win, however, was a breakthrough agreement to provide loss and damage funding for vulnerable countries hit hard by natural disasters. This was seen as a historic decision because countries recognised the need for finance to respond to such catastrophic effects of climate change for the very first time.
A UN report released earlier this month found that national climate plans remain insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C. While some countries are increasing efforts, much more urgent action is needed this decade to sharply reduce emissions as per the latest science.
COP28 is seen as critical for countries to regain momentum on ambitious climate action with the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake.
This year’s conference aims to take stock of progress made by different countries on the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement to identify gaps and find ways to accelerate action.
Expectations for COP28 and a successful outcome
After over 15 years working on climate, Durusut remains “optimistic” but knows “pace and scale in our global transition” must increase.
“This year it is even more important that COP deliver practical action plans to match its ambition and narrative. Each year the call for action becomes more urgent, and the gap between words and actions grows wider. With the global stocktake of national emissions taking place this year, there is a real sense that we are losing the opportunity for genuine transformation,” he said.
The inclusion of oil and gas businesses for the first time presents an opportunity to “act seriously” on accelerating the global net zero transition.
“The level of ambition and commitment of national oil companies (NOCs) and their nations will affect the pace of transition.”
However, Corradi said that a successful COP28 would involve “active engagement in addressing climate change” through fostering “profound insights and connections for impactful change.”
Graham concurred, viewing collaboration as key to addressing “climate challenges [through] joint endeavours leveraging technology and innovation.”
Clear plans, investment schedules, implementation milestones and accountability will determine if COP28 moves from words to impact, according to experts energised yet wary after past disappointments. The conference’s success may influence not only our climate future, but the very credibility of the UN process itself.
Follow us on
