This year has already given those of us in the Gulf and the wider Middle East the one piece of news that we were all hoping to hear; the rapprochement between Qatar and the quartet of Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates benefits many. But as with many regional issues, there are also those who may lose as a result of this agreement.
Let’s look at what this agreement means for the Gulf, its politics and economics, as well as global consequences.
A united Gulf?
While no one who has been following the issue for the past three years is in any doubt that it will take time for rebuild trust, there’s two political reasons for this agreement to happen now. The first is Iran and attempts by the quartet’s three Gulf states to build a more united approach to confronting Iran, its policies and actions across the region. During his opening address at the GCC summit on Tuesday, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman spoke of the need for a singular approach towards Iran among the six states, including Qatar.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman
“We are today in need of co-operation in our efforts, in the face of challenges in our region – especially the nuclear and ballistic missiles programme in Iran, which aims to shake up the stability of the region.”
Qatar’s relations with Iran are complex – the two countries jointly share ownership of the world’s largest gas field, South Pars/North Dome. Iran publicly stepped up flights of food materials to Qatar in 2017. It’s unclear what this agreement means for Qatar-Iran and GCC-Iran relations. One suggestion will be that the GCC states have a common approach to security and defense vis-à-vis Iran.
A changing America
Much has been said about the role of the Trump Administration in pushing through this agreement – America has been supporting Kuwait’s attempts to bring about a solution for several years. However, we all know there’s going to be a major change soon in Washington, with an incoming administration that has a very different view on the Gulf. This agreement will be welcomed by both the current US government as well as the incoming Biden presidency, and that’s very important for US-Gulf perceptions and relationships over the coming four years.
Financial investments
Could the agreement signal a raft of investments by both sides? Much of the talk over the past two days has been about the economic opportunities, especially investments in Saudi Arabia as well as Egypt. Qatar’s economy has weathered the storm of the pandemic better than most, and the country hasn’t experienced a second wave of cases. Buoyed by its gas reserves and wealth funds, could Qatar support a wider economic recovery? Regardless of what investments are made, businesses on both sides will welcome the easier access to one another’s markets.
The tourism opportunity
If there’s one industry that’s going to welcome this deal, it’s the hospitality sector. Qatar will be hosting the World Cup in 2022, and Asian Games in 2030. Hoteliers in the region will want to be part of these large events and host the hundreds of thousands of visitors to the region that such mega events will attract. There’s also the question of air travel, which is more complex. While airlines in Bahrain, Saudi and the UAE will welcome the additional traffic, Qatar Airways is a major winner – it’ll be able to fly shorter routes and it’ll also be able to tap into additional traveller demand.
The fact that Qatar Airways can now reduce its flight times will be one of the key wins the airline will take from the GCC’s recent agreement.
A shift in media
Finally, there’s the issue of the media, especially social media. One of the quartet’s demands on Qatar was that Al Jazeera shut down. While this was not going to happen, there has been increasing criticism of one another online, both in traditional media as well as on social media. We’re going to see a softening of the rhetoric, which will be especially welcomed by Gulf nationals and expatriates who have familial ties in both Qatar and the quartet states. Already, Al Jazeera Arabic’s social media accounts have been sharing insights about Riyadh and Abu Dhabi online, which wouldn’t have happened before this week.
What we must all remember is that this week is a start of a long process to rebuild trust and relations. While some steps may be easy to take, such as re-opening air space for Qatar Airways, a full reconciliation will take longer to achieve. The Gulf had never witnessed anything like this and, while this week’s actions have been a gamechanger in many ways, we won’t see the full benefits for some time to come.
Alex Malouf, communications professional and the only Chartered Communicator, Chartered Marketer, and Senior Communication Management Professional in the Middle East.
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