Industry experts on Friday said the move by the UK government to add the UAE to its ‘red list’ of countries would deliver a “near knock-out punch” for the already beleaguered air route.
The move, which bans all non-British and Irish nationals from entering the UK and instructs all travellers to quarantine for 10 days on arrival from 1pm GMT on Friday, will leave airlines with “no option” but to further downward adjust their schedules, said Andrew Charlton, managing director of air transport consultancy Aviation Advocacy.
“It makes business travel all but impossible for the formerly very, very busy UK-UAE air route because it adds a minimum of ten days to a trip,” said Charlton, pictured below.
The move, confirmed in tweets from Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, means there will be no direct flights from Dubai or Abu Dhabi from Friday afternoon.
According to a statement on the official UK Government website, the decision to ban travel “follows the discovery of a new coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, that may have spread to other countries, including the UAE, Burundi and Rwanda”.
Dubai Airports said in a statement: “Passengers booked into flights after [1pm UK time] should not go to Dubai International Airport and should contact their airline for information.”
Financial disaster?
“In the short term, this is a financial disaster for the likes of Emirates and Etihad who had recently built up daily flights to London and had re-established flights to other cities like Manchester and Birmingham too,” Saj Ahmad, founder of StratAero aviation consultancy, told Arabian Business.
“The longer this situation lasts, the harder and bigger the financial impact. For BA, it’s even worse, given that all travel out of England is banned due to the lockdown and it can’t even ply its trade elsewhere like Emirates and Etihad can,” Ahmad, pictured below, added.
“While traffic to the UAE will fall, the opening of routes to places like Qatar might help bring in additional passenger numbers. But to be clear, this restriction is the worst outcome all round and critically, airports like Heathrow too will invariably suffer,” he said.
Mark D Martin, founder of aviation analysis firm Martin Consulting, told Arabian Business that UAE airlines would “hold up” during this turbulent period by focusing on Asian markets.
“The majority of traffic that comes into the UAE emanates from what’s commonly known as the ‘labourer’ market, which is Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Asia, the CIS, Russia, East Europe and South East Asia. These markets are usually year-round and form the bulk of the UAE’s revenues,” Martin noted.
“Most European, American and Latin American routes, at most, enhance the already-in-place mainstay revenue, so UAE carriers should be able to keep themselves going fairly well,” he added.
According to Martin, the emergence of the new Covid strain is “unprecedented and unexpected”.
“Most airlines across the world were hoping for a recovery following the vaccine announcements. However, given this new threat, airlines have no choice but to park aircraft and hold back revenue services in view of health and travel advisories,” said Martin.
However, the aviation expert said the effect of the UK-UAE red list move could be short-lived. “The world is currently playing ‘catch-up’ with newer, more potent Covid strains. This is a fact that global airline industry needs to live with,” Martin added.
Ahmad added that planned widespread vaccination rollouts in both the UK and UAE “offer hope” that travel restrictions will be eased “sooner rather than later”.
The comments come as the UAE’s Ministry of Health and Prevention (MoHAP) on Friday announced that 3,962 new coronavirus cases have been detected in the last 24 hours, slightly down on Thursday’s figure but still the second highest since the start of the pandemic. It brings the total number of recorded cases in the UAE to 297,014.
MoHAP also announced seven deaths, bringing the total number to 826, while 2,975 individuals have fully recovered, bringing the total number of recoveries to 269,999.
Ongoing saga
Home Secretary Priti Patel said on Wednesday: “There are still too many people coming in and out of our country each day. The rules are clear – people should be staying at home unless they have a valid reason to leave. Going on holiday is not a valid reason.
“As we have done throughout this global health emergency, we will continue to take all steps necessary to protect the public and help prevent the spread of the virus.”
The addition to the red list is the latest twist to the saga of UK-UAE flights during the coronavirus pandemic.
Earlier this month, industry experts said a move by the UK to remove the UAE from its travel corridor would signal the “death knell” for the route.
Previously, incoming flights soared 112 percent in November when the UAE was added to the UK’s safe travel corridor.
Arabian Business also reported how the Dubai-London Heathrow travel corridor was the busiest international air route in the world during the first week of January.
According to aviation analytics firm OAG, a total of 190,365 seats were scheduled in the first week of 2021 on the route, putting it ahead of Cairo to Jeddah (154,337) and Orlando to San Juan (151,916).
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