British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has advised UK travellers not to book foreign holidays in a move that will come as blow to the UAE tourism industry.
Johnson said on Monday that the international travel ban might not be lifted on the previously mooted date of May 17 due to the risk of importing Covid-19 variants.
“We’re hopeful that we can get going from May 17, but I do not wish to underestimate… the difficulties we’re seeing in some of the destinations countries that people might want to go to. We don’t want to see the virus being reimported to this country from abroad,” the PM said.
The UK government warned it was “still too soon to know what is possible” and that the opening of foreign travel could be delayed beyond the middle of May.
“Given the state of the pandemic abroad, and the progress of vaccination programmes in other countries, we are not yet in a position to confirm that non-essential international travel can resume from that point,” said a government document.
UAE green list move “unlikely” in short-term
Saj Ahmad, founder of UK aviation consulting firm StrategicAero Research, said: “The fact that the UK government is still advising people to refrain from booking overseas holidays, coupled with the UAE still being on the red-list of restricted countries, means it’s unlikely that sun-seekers will get the nod to travel there.“
John Grant, partner at consulting firm Midas Aviation, said: “This news isn’t really a surprise given how little clarity the UK government has provided to the aviation sector in the last fifteen months.
John Grant, partner at consulting firm Midas Aviation
“The chances are clearly dependent on the levels of both vaccination and infection in each country market; fortunately the UK-UAE numbers look relatively positive at the moment.”
“Since travellers are generally booking at the last minute – if there was an indicative announcement of what can and what cannot be operated by the end of April then I suspect the demand would be there,” Grant said.
Traffic light system confirmed
The document confirmed that, when the ban on non-essential travel is lifted, it will be replaced by a traffic light system based on risk.
Quarantine for returning Britons will be dropped for countries on the ‘green list’, but the document said it was too early to say which countries would be listed.
Currently, non-resident arrivals to the UK from 36 countries – including the UAE – are required to travel straight to a government-mandated hotel for 10 days at a cost of £1,750 per adult.
UK Transport Secretary Grant Shapps
Under the new system, countries will be graded either green, amber or red, according to how well they are coping with the pandemic.
According to UK media, return travel from green-listed countries would be exempt from quarantine measures while travel to and from so-called red-list countries will be banned.
Amber routes would remain open, but with quarantine and test requirements.
Johnson confirmed the Global Travel Task Force, led by UK Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, would be reporting later this week on future plans for travel.
“The UK government is being cagey as the last thing it wants to do is allow people to book holidays that are then suspended. It’s a no-win situation,” commented Ahmad.
Saj Ahmad, founder of UK aviation consulting firm StrategicAero Research
“But there’s plenty of dynamics that could change things between now and May 17,” the StrategicAero Research expert said. “Right now, no one has a crystal ball to see how this is going to pan out.”
Pent-up demand
According to a World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) spokesperson, there will be a strong pent-up demand for both business and leisure travel between the UK and the UAE once the current travel ban is lifted.
In the first half of November 2020, when the UAE was briefly added to Britain’s list of quarantine-free countries, flight bookings from the UK to Dubai rose to over 50 percent of the levels in the equivalent period in 2019, according to ForwardKeys data.
The international travel sector suffered historic losses of almost $4.5 trillion last year, according to WTTC’s recent Economic Impact Report.
Emirates and Etihad Airways recently partnered with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to become among the first airlines in the world to trial a new app to help passengers manage their travel amid ongoing Covid-19 restrictions.
The IATA Travel Pass enables passengers to create a ‘digital passport’ to verify their pre-travel test or vaccination meets the requirements of the destination.
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