Dubai residential real estate sales climbed 31 per cent year-over-year (YOY) to AED232bn ($63.2bn) in H2 2024, according to a report published by Espace Real Estate.
Concentrating solely on the residential sector, the report tracks 31 communities in Dubai and shows the off-plan market to significantly outpace the secondary market in both value and volume.
61,435 off-plan sales (up 74 per cent YOY) drove value to AED127bn ($34.6bn) (up 51 per cent YOY), complemented by a robust secondary market amassing a volume of 32,487 transactions (up 15 per cent YOY).
Dubai real estate
Investor appetite is fuelled by Dubai’s ongoing population growth resulting in exceptionally high activity in the off-plan market with the off-plan market now making up more of the overall transactions in the second half of the year – 65 per cent compared to 61 per cent in H1.
Average prices increased in 19 of the 20 villa communities tracked, as well as 10 of the 11 apartment communities.
High demand and reduced availability in the wake of so many renters converting to homeowners sees properties in Springs (+26 per cent), Jumeirah Park (+23 per cent), Town Square (+21 per cent) and many others secure notable price increases.
Widespread developer refurbishment and new luxury villa offerings in Jumeirah Islands (+26 per cent), Jumeirah Golf Estates (+35 per cent) and Dubai Hills (+27 per cent) have further influenced average sales prices in established communities, while newer communities like Al Furjan (+26 per cent) get a boost from buyers looking for value after being priced out of neighbouring communities.
According to Espace Real Estate’s own data, mortgage leads generated are up 111 per cent YOY, facilitating transactions as residents lay down long-term roots in Dubai.
Newer apartment communities are also experiencing rising transaction volumes alongside increasing sales prices. Emaar Beachfront saw a (34 per cent) rise in transaction volume as buildings were handed over to new owners.
Similarly, Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) recorded a (28 per cent) increase in transactions, driven by the area’s ongoing expansion and the influx of new projects and residents.
Notably, 24 new projects were completed in JVC alone in 2024, further fuelling its growth.
Many new residents are entering the demand pool alongside established residents, with population growth up 65 per cent in the last 10 years and 10 per cent in the last three years.
The report reflects a shift in prominent buyer demographics, with six of Espace’s top ten buyer nationalities from Western European countries.
John Lyons, Managing Director, Espace Real Estate said: “Four of these nations rank among the top ten globally for national GDP, underscoring Dubai’s growing reputation as a magnet for global wealth.
“This trend reflects the sustained post-COVID appeal of Dubai to European buyers who are drawn by the city’s exceptional lifestyle, safety and strong returns on capital investment.”
The report projects further population growth alongside new property supply in the pipeline, comprising approximately 80 per cent apartments, demonstrating how dependent the city is becoming on new launches to keep up with demand.
According to Property Monitor a new property project launched every 18 hours in Q1 of 2024.
Higlights of the report include:
- Off-plan sales volume soared, representing 65 per cent of transactions and amounting to AED 127bn ($34.6bn) in value
- In the 20 villa and townhouse communities tracked, transactions were down 9 per cent while 19 out of 20 saw continued sales price increases, led by Jumeirah Golf Estates (+35 per cent), Arabian Ranches (+27 per cent) and Dubai Hills (+27 per cent)
- In apartment sales, more availability and price variability saw transaction volume continue to increase (+12 per cent), with prices also increasing across 10 of the 11 communities tracked
- Espace’s number of viewings increased 30 per cent to 8,486 compared to H2 2023, with buyer registrations up 10 per cent
- The UK remains top of Espace Real Estate’s buyer nationalities list, with the list’s demographic shifting to reflect more Western European prominence including Netherlands, France and Ireland
Rising demand driven by ongoing population growth is almost certain, but will Dubai’s significant pipeline of new developments finally outpace this demand?
The answer depends on the property type, says Espace Real Estate. Supply in the villas and townhouses market is likely to remain limited, with only 5 per cent (villas) and 15 per cent (townhouses) of pipeline projects comprising villas and townhouses, respectively.
John Lyons said: “With the continued need to expand the supply pipeline for 2028 and beyond, I anticipate another year of significant off-plan launches.
“However, absorption rates are likely to moderate as we progress toward a more balanced market in terms of supply and demand. While I expect prices to continue rising in 2025, it’s unlikely we’ll see the same growth rates experienced in 2024”.
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