An IMF forecast has warned that GDP growth in the MENA region will slow down to 3.6% next year, despite a resilient performance in 2022.
Jihad Azour, director for the Middle East and Central Asia department at the IMF was more optimistic for oil exporters, saying projected growth would be 5.2% this year.
“Economic activity in the region has been resilient thus far, with multispeed recovery continuing in 2022; and we project that the region will grow at 5 percent this year, up from 4.1 percent in 2021,” said Azour.
IMF forecasts slowdown
The region is still feeling the effects of volatile energy prices and tightening of global financial conditions.
Next year, however, is more likely to see an impact in the MENA region.
“The worsening of global conditions will weigh on the outlook for next year with growth slowing to 3.6 percent,” said Mr Azour.
“The region’s emerging market and middle-income economies are facing a deep term-of-trade shock, weakening of global demand, and tighter financial conditions, which could translate into higher government service debt and worsening of debt dynamics,” he added.
The twin performance of oil exporters and importers will see varying results across the MENA region said the IMF.
Inflation continued to increase and has become now broad-based. Headline inflation in MENA is projected at 14.2 percent, on average, for this year, and expected to remain elevated in 2023.
The IMF has been offering up a bleak view of the global economy, predicting a loss of $4tn by the end of 2026.
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