The incoming Joe Biden administration in the United States may be less “flexible” when it comes to military sales to Arab and Gulf states, according to Middle East analysts in Washington DC.
Since taking office in January 2017, the administration of current President Donald Trump has repeatedly undertaken major military sales to American allies in the region.
Just a few months after taking office, for example, the Trump administration announced an agreement with Saudi Arabia to purchase $110 billion worth of military equipment immediately, and $350 billion over a 10-year period.
Middle East policy analysts in Washington DC, however, predict that Biden’s administration will likely take a significantly different approach to military sales – including to US allies in the Arabian Gulf.
“The Gulf states will be concerned that the Biden administration may be less flexible about arms sales,” said Elana DeLozier, a research fellow and Gulf specialist at the DC-based Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
The most immediate shift in policy when it comes to military sales, DeLozier said, is likely to be with regards to Saudi Arabia.
“The Saudis will be keeping an eye out for the Biden policy on arm sales to them, especially given the concerns within the Biden camp about the war in Yemen,” she added.
Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the DC-based Arab Gulf States Institute of Washington (ASGIW), said that the Biden administration is more likely than the current government to distinguish between offensive weapons sales – such as missiles and aircraft – versus defence weapons, such as anti-missile systems.
“A lot of it has to do with the ability of the left wing of the Democratic Party to shape the administration’s foreign policy and to wield power in Congress that can block sales if they are proposed,” he said.
“If the Republicans remain powerful in the Senate and the Biden administration wants to go ahead with more weapons sales, both of which are entirely plausible, it’s unlikely that left-wing Democrats will have the power to block those sales.”
However, if the Democrats emerge victorious from two ongoing run-off races in the southern state of Georgia, Ibish said that Biden will be able to “stamp his dominance” on the Democratic Party.
“It will take time for the left wing, especially in the House, to gain enough gumption to defy him on such issues effectively,” he added. “So, whoever controls the Senate, Biden is likely to be able to sell weapons if he wants to, especially if he is able to overcome tensions between Saudi Arabia…and large numbers of prominent Democrats, particularly on the left of the party.”
Elana DeLozier, Gulf specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute
As part of his platform, Biden has already vowed to undertake a “review” of the US relationship with Saudi Arabia.
In the short-term, many Middle East watchers in the United States are waiting to see what – if anything – the incoming administration will do with regards to the Trump administration’s plan to sell top-of-the-line F-35 combat aircraft to the UAE as part of a $23.37 billion package.
The Trump administration, for its part, has confirmed that the sale will take place, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo saying last week that the sale will include up to 50 F-35s and up to 18 MQ-9B advanced drones.
Mohammed Soliman, a senior associate at McLarty Associates, a Washington-based strategic advisory firm, said that while the Biden administration will likely review arms sales on a “case-by-case” basis, it will remain keenly aware of the Gulf’s importance to US security posture.
“The Gulf states are strategic partners to the US, and Washington is interested in Gulf security,” he said.
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