The Saudi Arabia-based International Energy Forum (IEF) has revealed that global oil consumption from transportation fuels in March was still 5.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) below where it was before the Covid-19 pandemic.
The ‘Alternative Metrics for Real-Time Assessment of Energy Demand’ report analysed data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), Google’s Community Mobility Tracker and Oxford’s Covid-19 Government Response Tracker to estimate the recovery of demand after the 25 percent drop caused by the pandemic in April last year.
Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the International Energy Forum (IEF)
“The ensuing recovery has been equally spectacular, but the ‘last mile’ has been slow and uneven,” said Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the IEF.
Gasoline and diesel demand rebounded to about 93 percent of pre-Covid levels in March from about 87 percent in January this year, the report showed. About one third of this volume gain was driven by the US and India. Mobility in many European countries lags 20-40 percent below the January 2020 baseline, the report added.
The lion’s share of missing transportation fuel demand is jet fuel, which is expected to remain at 5.5-5.7 mb/d during the first half of this year, against 7.9 mb/d in 2019, the report showed.
“The increasing disparity between regions and countries in terms of effectiveness of government response means that domestic and regional flights are picking up only slowly,” said Dr Leila R. Benali, chief economist at the IEF.
“Current data suggests a stagnant last mile demand recovery in 2021. But we will continue monitoring these different metrics during the rest of the year, particularly in relation to Ramadan and summer vacation travel patterns,” she added.
Dr Leila R. Benali, chief economist at the International Energy Forum (IEF)
Oil advanced toward $64 a barrel on Tuesday as traders monitored a patchwork recovery in demand from the coronavirus pandemic a year to the day since futures for the US benchmark plunged below zero.
Twelve months ago the global oil market faced an unprecedented crisis, with WTI closing at -$37.63 a barrel. Prices went negative after lockdowns savaged demand and producers Saudi Arabia and Russia had flooded the market in a price war. A restoration of OPEC+ unity marked by deep supply cuts, and the development of vaccines, helped prices to stage a steady recovery.
At present, OPEC+ has decided to revive just over two million barrels a day of the eight million it’s been keeping offline, with the supply to be returned in stages over the three months to July. If the ministerial gathering is scrapped, the coalition may go ahead with just a monitoring committee meeting on April 28.
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