The widespread use of weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy could potentially cost retailers “tens of millions” in lost sales and excess inventory as sizing demands begin to shift on a massive scale, an expert told Arabian Business.
This sizing curve shift is already being seen in the US, data from Impact Analytics revealed. Concerns are now mounting around this sizing trend as it could catch many retailers flatfooted before they are able to properly adjust their inventories.
This is particularly crucial as companies plan their assortments months in advance and by sizing curves and market demand.
“Our data suggests leaving the change in size curves unaddressed could negatively affect retailers’ profitability and margins. Tens of millions of dollars will be lost in sales due to stockouts and excesses in inventories that will subsequently need to be marked down,” said Prashant Agrawal, CEO of Impact Analytics.
The impact is already visible across multiple clothing categories. Impact Analytics’ research found that sales of the three largest sizes of women’s button-down shirts fell by almost 11 percent in the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period just two years ago.
“We saw a similar correlation across women’s dresses, sweaters, and even men’s polos, sweaters, and t-shirts,” Agrawal added.
GLP-1 drugs’ impressive weight loss results
This shift in sizing demands comes as no surprise given the effectiveness of GLP-1 drugs.
Clinical trials have shown significant results. A recent study proved that semaglutide (marketed as Ozempic) can lead to an average weight loss of just over 15 percent. In a trial, it demonstrated a mean weight loss of almost 15kg over a 68-week period. Wegovy, a higher-dose version of semaglutide, resulted in a 17.4 percent reduction in body weight compared to placebo groups in a separate study.
These dramatic weight loss results are translating directly into changing clothing sizes, especially in the US, where some brands have reported customers purchasing items multiple sizes smaller than their previous purchases.
The trend extends beyond just clothing sizes. Agrawal noted that consumer fashion tastes could change as a result.
“Consumers may become more comfortable in a slimmer, more body-conscious silhouette. They may also shop at completely different retailers, and purchase more expensive clothes as part of the redefinition of their slimmer style,” he said.
However, medical professionals caution against overstating the long-term impact. Dr. Basil Ammori, a UAE-based Bariatric Surgeon Specialist at Burjeel’s Day Surgery Centre, has observed an increase in patients seeking drug therapy but believes the overall effect on population-wide sizing may be limited.
“When these medications are prescribed, patients do lose weight; some lose 15-20 kg, but most patients don’t lose much. Some don’t continue due to the side effects, and some don’t want to continue due to the cost,” Dr. Ammori explained.
“A proportion of people who are now undergoing surgeries have already tried these medications and regained weight.”
Despite these caveats, retailers are advised to prepare for potential shifts in demand. Concerns are mounting around this sizing trend as it could catch many companies flatfooted before they can properly adjust. This is particularly important for retailers as they plan their assortments months in advance.
Agrawal suggests leveraging AI-powered predictive analytics to identify trends and adjust buying and forecasting strategies accordingly.
“While there are a lot of unpredictable trends that take off, this is a trend that we can see coming,” Agrawal stated.
“Over the next few years, we expect this trend to grow as more of the population turns to these drugs to help with weight loss and type 2 diabetes.”
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