The UK is set to resume global flights as early as May 17, according to its latest lockdown exit plan, but experts say it could be many months before the traditionally popular UK-UAE route regains even a glint of its former glory.
Airline shares rose this week as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his plans on Monday to slowly release the UK economy from lockdown, but Saj Ahmad, founder of London-based aviation research firm StrategicAero Research, said that even if international travel is “normalised” by May, the health of the UK-UAE air route will depend on the strategic details of the plan.
“The health of the UK–UAE market will be inextricably linked towhether there is a UK-UAE air corridor and whether the UAE remains a red-listed country,” Ahmad said, referring to Britain’s flip-flopping rules regarding travel between the two countries. Currently the UAE remains on the UK’s red list – meaning that direct flights have ended and tough quarantine rules apply to arrivals.
Non-resident arrivals to the UK from 33 countries – including the UAE – are currently required to travel straight to a government-mandated hotel for ten days at a cost of GBP1,750 per adult.
“If the UAE remains on that red list, then the inevitable quarantine on return to the UK may well deter travellers,” commented Ahmad, adding that the health of the UK aviation market will depend on how many countries Britain forms air corridors with.
“Until people know which air corridors are confirmed, planning for a summer getaway will invariably be delayed cause yet extended misery for airlines, airports and hoteliers who may have hoped for some travel to occur before or around Easter. That’s now clearly not going to happen – so they’ll have to play with the hand that they’ve been dealt,” said Ahmad.
Heathrow remains hopeful
According to the CEO of London’s Heathrow airport, Britain could be poised to become the first country to resume mass international travel, building on its early rollout of coronavirus vaccinations.
“As the UK makes progress in battling Covid-19 and curbs are removed, long-haul travel to other low-risk nations is likely to recover,” John Holland-Kaye said in an interview on Wednesday with Bloomberg. He cited Australia, New Zealand and Singapore as examples.
John Holland-Kaye, CEO of Heathrow Airport.
“We will see a patchwork reopening of long-haul markets depending on the progress of vaccinations,” the CEO added.
The pandemic wiped out almost two-thirds of revenue at Heathrow and pushed the hub to a $2.8 billion loss last year, the airport said in a statement.
Overall passenger traffic to Heathrow fell 73 percent in 2020 to 22.1 million people. The European hub expects 37.1 million passengers this year, down 54 percent from 2019 – most of the rebound will come in the second half, the airport said.
‘Battered’ markets
As Holland-Kaye reiterated calls for support for aviation in the UK budget next month, including 100 percent business rates relief, an extension to furlough payments, and reversing a tourist tax, StrategicAero Research’s Ahmad told Arabian Business there is “no question” that the UK aviation industry has been “battered” by the pandemic and a lack of direct financial support from government.
“While the UK powers ahead with vaccine rollout and eventual lockdown easements – all of this means nothing when other nations, primarily would-be destinations for UK travellers, are still behind the curve – and if those countries are still in lockdown or have tight restrictions, then it doesn’t matter what the state-of-play is in the UK, because air corridors simply won’t be there for people to fly or visit for vacation,” Ahmad said.
Andrew Charlton, managing director of Switzerland-based aviation consultancy Aviation Advocacy.
Andrew Charlton, managing director of Switzerland-based aviation consultancy Aviation Advocacy, told Arabian Business there is “little prospect of change” in the UK-UAE air route until the British lockdown is completely lifted.
“I believe that borders will continue to be a flashpoint in terms of new Covid variants entering the system, which will mean continued high barriers, quarantine and so on,” Charlton warned.
“The UK announcement talks about the return of international travel but that is, by definition, a two-way street, so it is more likely to be limited travel, in corridors between similar states,” he added.
Charlton said the UAE has high vaccination rate, but “Gulf carriers are still going to have to address the issues of the many transfer passengers they carry.”
Seven years to recovery?
According to Ahmad, the UK aviation industry is unlikely to see any significant recovery for the rest of the year. In his bleak assessment, it will be “five to seven years” before recovery nears 2019 air traffic figures. “And that’s a best-case scenario,” he added.
Saj Ahmad, founder of London-based aviation research firm StrategicAero Research.
Global flight bookings to the UAE over the traditionally busy half-term period were down by 76 percent on the previous year, according to recent data obtained by Arabian Business.
The latest statistics refer to global data from IATA, which includes the UAE’s main source markets, such as the UK, France and Germany.
Inbound flights from Russia to the UAE over the February half-term period were the least affected, with bookings down by a quarter on the same time last year, said UK-based aviation analytics firm Forward Keys.
Ponti said that the impact of government travel restrictions was the most influential factor on respective flight bookings per country.
“Travel restrictions are changing all the time with new corona variants. Before the latest batch of restrictions, Dubai was doing well at attracting tourism when it was first added to the UK travel corridor in late 2020,” said Ponti.
Research from Forward Keys shows that since the pandemic, consumers are booking at shorter notice as they look not to get stranded amid travel restrictions.
The number of travellers through Dubai fell to 25.9 million in 2020, according to a statement. That included 17.8 million passengers during the first quarter of the year, before the pandemic started to impact travel.
Since then, restrictions on air travel have pummelled airlines and airports around the world.
The impact of the UK government’s decision to restrict air travel to and from the UAE has seen the popular Dubai-Heathrow route lose its position as the world’s busiest route.
The Dubai-London Heathrow travel corridor was the busiest in the world during the first week of January 2020 with a total of 190,365 seats scheduled, putting it ahead of Cairo to Jeddah (154,337) and Orlando to San Juan (151.916).
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