The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warns that the oil sector will need $10.6tn in new investments by 2040—and up to $18.2tn by 2050—to meet rising global demand and maintain market stability, according to its 2025 World Oil Outlook (WOO).
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais stresses that while transitioning to cleaner energy remains essential, the world must also shore up oil and gas infrastructure.
He said that safeguarding energy security and achieving climate objectives will depend on balanced policies that cover all energy sources and technologies. He highlights the need to strengthen efforts in low-carbon solutions and to expand carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) under a circular-economy framework.
Opec oil demand forecasts
Key drivers shaping the next two decades include:
- Rising demand in non-OECD Asia: Oil consumption outside the OECD—led by Asia, notably China—is projected to increase by 21.4 million barrels per day by 2040, driven largely by petrochemicals and aviation
- Carbon capture and low-carbon solutions: OPEC calls for accelerated investment in carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) as part of a circular-economy approach to minimize emissions.
- US shale plateau: Unconventional production is expected to peak by the mid-2020s before declining, creating new market space for traditional producers.
- Resilience vs. renewables: Despite the rapid rollout of renewables, oil will remain a cornerstone of the global energy mix, underlining the need for sustained upstream investment
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